figure4.svg. It is the pipeline's own output, not a screenshot, and not redrawn for this page. Open it on its own to pan and zoom a dense figure.What this figure draws, in its own words
Axes. Number of Species · Percentage (%)
Panels. 3 in this figure.
- (a) Post-listing trajectory, species
- (b) Latest comparable category, 41 species
- (c) Post-listing trajectory, share
Labels, in the order the figure carries them. 10 · 18 · 13 · Deteriorated · Unchanged · Improved · 0 · 2 · 4 · 6 · 8 · 10 · 12 · 14 · 16 · 18 · 21 · 2 · 11 · 3 · 4 · Least Concern · Near Threatened · Vulnerable · Endangered · Critically Endangered · 0 · 5 · 10 · 15 · 20 · 24.4% · 43.9% · 31.7% · Deteriorated · Unchanged · Improved · 0 · 5 · 10 · 15 · 20 · 25 · 30 · 35 · 40 · 45
The numbers in this figure
62 rows from figure4_source_data.csv, read out of source_data.zip in the deposit. Not a copy: the page reads the archive a reader downloads, so the two cannot disagree. The filename carries the pipeline's figure number, which is not this figure's number; the archive's index states the binding.
The archive's digest: 3558736147e731a25c113309a5af49e534421701d97c1324ddf703aed3d45266
current_status is withheld in 62 of 62 rows. IUCN categories may not be redistributed; REBUILD-IUCN.md in the deposit rebuilds them from the IUCN's own release.
All 62 rows, 8 columns
The table scrolls inside its frame; the header stays in place.
Scientific namescientific_name | Scopescope | First yearfirst_year | Latest yearlatest_year | Total assessmentstotal_assessments | Status changesstatus_changes | Current statuscurrent_status | Assessment idassessment_id |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acipenser baerii | Global | 1996 | 2022 | 3 | 2 | withheld | 156718817 |
| Alopias vulpinus | Global | 2000 | 2022 | 7 | 4 | withheld | 212641186 |
| Asio flammeus | Global | 1988 | 2022 | 13 | 1 | withheld | 210503760 |
| Balaena mysticetus | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 221069826 |
| Balaena mysticetus | Global | 1965 | 2018 | 10 | 7 | withheld | 50347659 |
| Balaenoptera acutorostrata | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 219011809 |
| Balaenoptera acutorostrata | Global | 1994 | 2018 | 5 | 2 | withheld | 50348265 |
| Balaenoptera borealis | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 221059418 |
| Balaenoptera borealis | Global | 1994 | 2018 | 5 | 1 | withheld | 130482064 |
| Balaenoptera musculus | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 221061186 |
| Balaenoptera musculus | Global | 1965 | 2018 | 10 | 5 | withheld | 50226195 |
| Balaenoptera physalus | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 213291870 |
| Balaenoptera physalus | Global | 1965 | 2018 | 10 | 8 | withheld | 50349982 |
| Berardius bairdii | Global | 1994 | 2020 | 4 | 3 | withheld | 50351457 |
| Branta hutchinsii | Global | 1988 | 2021 | 10 | 4 | withheld | 139214707 |
| Branta ruficollis | Global | 1988 | 2025 | 16 | 4 | withheld | 154473642 |
| Bubo scandiacus | Global | 1988 | 2021 | 15 | 3 | withheld | 205475036 |
| Buteo lagopus | Global | 1988 | 2021 | 13 | 0 | withheld | 202640529 |
| Cetorhinus maximus | Global | 1990 | 2021 | 10 | 3 | withheld | 194720078 |
| Delphinapterus leucas | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 219012513 |
| Delphinapterus leucas | Global | 1988 | 2017 | 8 | 6 | withheld | 50352346 |
| Enhydra lutris | Global | 1996 | 2021 | 7 | 1 | withheld | 219377647 |
| Eschrichtius robustus | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 213296952 |
| Eschrichtius robustus | Global | 1996 | 2018 | 4 | 2 | withheld | 50353881 |
| Eubalaena glacialis | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 221073107 |
| Eubalaena glacialis | Global | 2007 | 2020 | 6 | 2 | withheld | 162001243 |
| Eubalaena japonica | Global | 1996 | 2018 | 4 | 0 | withheld | 50380694 |
| Falco peregrinus | Global | 2014 | 2022 | 8 | 0 | withheld | 210513652 |
| Falco rusticolus | Global | 1988 | 2021 | 13 | 1 | withheld | 206261845 |
| Globicephala melas | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 213293843 |
| Globicephala melas | Global | 1994 | 2018 | 5 | 4 | withheld | 50356171 |
| Grus canadensis | Global | 1988 | 2021 | 9 | 0 | withheld | 188597759 |
| Hyperoodon ampullatus | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 221058609 |
| Hyperoodon ampullatus | Global | 1986 | 2021 | 8 | 7 | withheld | 50357742 |
| Lagenorhynchus acutus | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 219011226 |
| Lagenorhynchus acutus | Global | 1994 | 2019 | 5 | 1 | withheld | 50361160 |
| Lagenorhynchus albirostris | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 219011385 |
| Lagenorhynchus albirostris | Global | 1994 | 2018 | 6 | 1 | withheld | 50361346 |
| Lamna nasus | Global | 1996 | 2019 | 6 | 4 | withheld | 500969 |
| Leucogeranus leucogeranus | Global | 1988 | 2018 | 16 | 2 | withheld | 134180990 |
| Lontra canadensis | Global | 2000 | 2021 | 6 | 0 | withheld | 164577078 |
| Lynx canadensis | Global | 1996 | 2025 | 7 | 0 | withheld | 275326314 |
| Megaptera novaeangliae | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 219002308 |
| Megaptera novaeangliae | Global | 1965 | 2018 | 9 | 6 | withheld | 50362794 |
| Mesoplodon stejnegeri | Global | 1994 | 2020 | 4 | 3 | withheld | 50367496 |
| Monodon monoceros | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 2 | 0 | withheld | 254246310 |
| Monodon monoceros | Global | 1988 | 2017 | 8 | 6 | withheld | 50367651 |
| Numenius borealis | Global | 1988 | 2021 | 14 | 1 | withheld | 178901365 |
| Odobenus rosmarus | Global | 1996 | 2025 | 6 | 5 | withheld | 272356023 |
| Orcinus orca | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 218567908 |
| Orcinus orca | Global | 1994 | 2017 | 6 | 5 | withheld | 50368125 |
| Phocoena phocoena | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 219010660 |
| Phocoena phocoena | Global | 1988 | 2023 | 8 | 4 | withheld | 247632759 |
| Phocoenoides dalli | Global | 1994 | 2018 | 5 | 2 | withheld | 50370912 |
| Phoebastria albatrus | Global | 1988 | 2018 | 14 | 2 | withheld | 132642113 |
| Physeter macrocephalus | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 2 | 0 | withheld | 218568250 |
| Physeter macrocephalus | Global | 1994 | 2025 | 8 | 3 | withheld | 50382216 |
| Rhodiola rosea | Global | 2014 | 2014 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 55685155 |
| Ursus maritimus | Europe | 2025 | 2025 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 217912462 |
| Ursus maritimus | Global | 1965 | 2015 | 11 | 7 | withheld | 14871490 |
| Ziphius cavirostris | Europe | 2023 | 2023 | 1 | 0 | withheld | 219010340 |
| Ziphius cavirostris | Global | 1994 | 2020 | 6 | 5 | withheld | 50379111 |
Cells marked withheld are IUCN categories this deposit may not redistribute; REBUILD-IUCN.md in the deposit rebuilds them from the IUCN's own release.
Binding curated
status-trends · pipeline artifact figure4 · binding confirmed by elimination once Figure 4 is bound on 2026-08-14
Binding evidence, as the record states it: CONFIRMED 2026-08-14 by elimination. Manuscript Figure 4 is bound to figure5 on the heatmap evidence above, and figure4_conservation_trends.py draws bars and lines with no heatmap, matching 'Conservation status trends 1982-2024'. The two candidates that shared byte-identical source data are separated by what they draw.
1. Data inputs derived
Computed from the figure pipeline's declared tables and query.
- Database schema
arctic- Tables
iucn_assessments,species- Database release
- CITES Trade Database v2025.1
- Extraction date
- 13 June 2025
- Redistributable
- No. IUCN Red List terms do not permit redistribution. Assessment identifiers and the extraction script are deposited instead.
The figure pipeline reads schema arctic (v1). The deposit is built from arctic_v2. IUCN assessment rows are not redistributed in the deposit.
2. Processing steps derived
Each step is a path in the figure pipeline's own repository, which this site does not host. Regenerate and verify commands are literal. 1 of the 4 artifacts below is served here, and carries a download link; the rest are named so the chain can be read, not followed.
- Aggregate from Postgres.
visualizations/data_processing/generate_iucn_timeline_pg.py - Intermediate JSON.
data/processed/iucn_historic_timeline.json - Render.
visualizations/scripts/figure4_conservation_trends.py - Frozen numeric source data.
visualizations/source_data/figure4_source_data.csv, download
Regenerate: ARCTIC_DATABASE_URL=... ./.venv/bin/python visualizations/make_all_figures.py
Verify: append --check. This regenerates the source data from the database and byte-diffs it against the frozen copy. Byte equality means the whole chain from database to figure numbers is deterministic.
3. LLM involvement: none
No generative model participated in producing this figure. The artifacts named above import only csv, json, numpy, pandas, plotly, pathlib, collections and the project's psycopg2 helper. No model API is called at any step, and there is no prompt because there is no model.
This is asserted mechanically rather than by declaration. visualizations/tests/test_no_model_calls.py reads this manifest, opens every script and generator it names, searches for model SDKs and API clients, and fails if it finds one. It covers every script and generator the manifest names.
The generative model in this project drafted 343 narrative prose sections about the 43 species. None of that prose reaches any figure, and none of it is displayed on this site: it is withheld pending expert review.
No review has begun, so there is no agreement statistic to report and no page reporting one. What can be checked is that the withholding is complete: the drafts are deposited unrendered as supplementary/species_narratives_no_citations.csv, every species page states how many of its sections are withheld, and the dataset page marks the table as unreviewed content.
4. Validation
Automated gate: passed. Byte-exact regeneration from the live database against the frozen source data.
Human review: no named person has signed this figure. withheld The automated gate establishes that the numbers are reproducible from the database. It establishes nothing about whether they are the right numbers to plot. That judgement requires a person, and no person has recorded it.
Known defects: none recorded. The automated regeneration gate passed and no defect has been recorded against this figure. That is a statement about what is known, not a guarantee that none exists.