Arctic Tracker / Figures / status-patterns

Figure 11, Conservation status patterns; category changes; trajectory

How this page was produced derived

Read from figure_provenance.json, generated by the pipeline that produces the figures and copied here byte for byte at commit 70da249, generated 2026-10-21. The copy fails rather than completes if any artifact it names is missing. Nothing on this page is authored in this application.

Figure 11, Conservation status patterns; category changes; trajectory
Drawn by the deposited package from the numbers tabulated below: figures/figure11-status-patterns-journal.svg, 12.0 KiB, SHA-256 8bd0969ce13117a1, written by build_figure11_journal.py in the same package. It is shown because the bytes on disk still hash to the value the manifest records. The figure in the manuscript is drawn by the authors from the same numbers.

The numbers in this figure

299 rows from figureB_source_data.csv, read out of source_data.zip in the deposit. Not a copy: the page reads the archive a reader downloads, so the two cannot disagree. The filename carries the pipeline's figure number, which is not this figure's number; the archive's index states the binding.

The archive's digest: 3558736147e731a25c113309a5af49e534421701d97c1324ddf703aed3d45266

All 299 rows, 5 columns

The table scrolls inside its frame; the header stays in place.

PanelpanelEntityentityMetricmetricValuevalueAssessment idassessment_id
AAcipenser baeriilatest_categorywithheld156718817
AAcipenser baeriilatest_assessment_year2022
AAcipenser baeriilatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AAcipenser baeriion_ordinal_scaleyes
AAlopias vulpinuslatest_categorywithheld212641186
AAlopias vulpinuslatest_assessment_year2022
AAlopias vulpinuslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AAlopias vulpinuson_ordinal_scaleyes
AAsio flammeuslatest_categorywithheld210503760
AAsio flammeuslatest_assessment_year2022
AAsio flammeuslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AAsio flammeuson_ordinal_scaleyes
ABalaena mysticetuslatest_categorywithheld221069826
ABalaena mysticetuslatest_assessment_year2023
ABalaena mysticetuslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
ABalaena mysticetuson_ordinal_scaleyes
ABalaenoptera acutorostratalatest_categorywithheld219011809
ABalaenoptera acutorostratalatest_assessment_year2023
ABalaenoptera acutorostratalatest_assessment_scopeEurope
ABalaenoptera acutorostrataon_ordinal_scaleyes
ABalaenoptera borealislatest_categorywithheld221059418
ABalaenoptera borealislatest_assessment_year2023
ABalaenoptera borealislatest_assessment_scopeEurope
ABalaenoptera borealison_ordinal_scaleyes
ABalaenoptera musculuslatest_categorywithheld221061186
ABalaenoptera musculuslatest_assessment_year2023
ABalaenoptera musculuslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
ABalaenoptera musculuson_ordinal_scaleyes
ABalaenoptera physaluslatest_categorywithheld213291870
ABalaenoptera physaluslatest_assessment_year2023
ABalaenoptera physaluslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
ABalaenoptera physaluson_ordinal_scaleyes
ABerardius bairdiilatest_categorywithheld50351457
ABerardius bairdiilatest_assessment_year2020
ABerardius bairdiilatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ABerardius bairdiion_ordinal_scaleyes
ABranta hutchinsiilatest_categorywithheld139214707
ABranta hutchinsiilatest_assessment_year2021
ABranta hutchinsiilatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ABranta hutchinsiion_ordinal_scaleyes
ABranta ruficollislatest_categorywithheld154473642
ABranta ruficollislatest_assessment_year2025
ABranta ruficollislatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ABranta ruficollison_ordinal_scaleyes
ABubo scandiacuslatest_categorywithheld205475036
ABubo scandiacuslatest_assessment_year2021
ABubo scandiacuslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ABubo scandiacuson_ordinal_scaleyes
AButeo lagopuslatest_categorywithheld202640529
AButeo lagopuslatest_assessment_year2021
AButeo lagopuslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AButeo lagopuson_ordinal_scaleyes
ACetorhinus maximuslatest_categorywithheld194720078
ACetorhinus maximuslatest_assessment_year2021
ACetorhinus maximuslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ACetorhinus maximuson_ordinal_scaleyes
ADelphinapterus leucaslatest_categorywithheld219012513
ADelphinapterus leucaslatest_assessment_year2023
ADelphinapterus leucaslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
ADelphinapterus leucason_ordinal_scaleyes
AEnhydra lutrislatest_categorywithheld219377647
AEnhydra lutrislatest_assessment_year2021
AEnhydra lutrislatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AEnhydra lutrison_ordinal_scaleyes
AEschrichtius robustuslatest_categorywithheld213296952
AEschrichtius robustuslatest_assessment_year2023
AEschrichtius robustuslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
AEschrichtius robustuson_ordinal_scaleno
AEubalaena glacialislatest_categorywithheld221073107
AEubalaena glacialislatest_assessment_year2023
AEubalaena glacialislatest_assessment_scopeEurope
AEubalaena glacialison_ordinal_scaleyes
AEubalaena japonicalatest_categorywithheld50380694
AEubalaena japonicalatest_assessment_year2018
AEubalaena japonicalatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AEubalaena japonicaon_ordinal_scaleyes
AFalco peregrinuslatest_categorywithheld210513652
AFalco peregrinuslatest_assessment_year2022
AFalco peregrinuslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AFalco peregrinuson_ordinal_scaleyes
AFalco rusticoluslatest_categorywithheld206261845
AFalco rusticoluslatest_assessment_year2021
AFalco rusticoluslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AFalco rusticoluson_ordinal_scaleyes
AGlobicephala melaslatest_categorywithheld213293843
AGlobicephala melaslatest_assessment_year2023
AGlobicephala melaslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
AGlobicephala melason_ordinal_scaleyes
AGrus canadensislatest_categorywithheld188597759
AGrus canadensislatest_assessment_year2021
AGrus canadensislatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AGrus canadensison_ordinal_scaleyes
AHyperoodon ampullatuslatest_categorywithheld221058609
AHyperoodon ampullatuslatest_assessment_year2023
AHyperoodon ampullatuslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
AHyperoodon ampullatuson_ordinal_scaleyes
ALagenorhynchus acutuslatest_categorywithheld219011226
ALagenorhynchus acutuslatest_assessment_year2023
ALagenorhynchus acutuslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
ALagenorhynchus acutuson_ordinal_scaleyes
ALagenorhynchus albirostrislatest_categorywithheld219011385
ALagenorhynchus albirostrislatest_assessment_year2023
ALagenorhynchus albirostrislatest_assessment_scopeEurope
ALagenorhynchus albirostrison_ordinal_scaleyes
ALamna nasuslatest_categorywithheld500969
ALamna nasuslatest_assessment_year2019
ALamna nasuslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ALamna nasuson_ordinal_scaleyes
ALeucogeranus leucogeranuslatest_categorywithheld134180990
ALeucogeranus leucogeranuslatest_assessment_year2018
ALeucogeranus leucogeranuslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ALeucogeranus leucogeranuson_ordinal_scaleyes
ALontra canadensislatest_categorywithheld164577078
ALontra canadensislatest_assessment_year2021
ALontra canadensislatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ALontra canadensison_ordinal_scaleyes
ALynx canadensislatest_categorywithheld275326314
ALynx canadensislatest_assessment_year2025
ALynx canadensislatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ALynx canadensison_ordinal_scaleyes
AMegaptera novaeangliaelatest_categorywithheld219002308
AMegaptera novaeangliaelatest_assessment_year2023
AMegaptera novaeangliaelatest_assessment_scopeEurope
AMegaptera novaeangliaeon_ordinal_scaleyes
AMesoplodon stejnegerilatest_categorywithheld50367496
AMesoplodon stejnegerilatest_assessment_year2020
AMesoplodon stejnegerilatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AMesoplodon stejnegerion_ordinal_scaleyes
AMonodon monoceroslatest_categorywithheld254246310
AMonodon monoceroslatest_assessment_year2023
AMonodon monoceroslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
AMonodon monoceroson_ordinal_scaleyes
ANumenius borealislatest_categorywithheld178901365
ANumenius borealislatest_assessment_year2021
ANumenius borealislatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ANumenius borealison_ordinal_scaleyes
AOdobenus rosmaruslatest_categorywithheld272356023
AOdobenus rosmaruslatest_assessment_year2025
AOdobenus rosmaruslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
AOdobenus rosmaruson_ordinal_scaleyes
AOrcinus orcalatest_categorywithheld218567908
AOrcinus orcalatest_assessment_year2023
AOrcinus orcalatest_assessment_scopeEurope
AOrcinus orcaon_ordinal_scaleyes
APhocoena phocoenalatest_categorywithheld247632759
APhocoena phocoenalatest_assessment_year2023
APhocoena phocoenalatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
APhocoena phocoenaon_ordinal_scaleyes
APhocoenoides dallilatest_categorywithheld50370912
APhocoenoides dallilatest_assessment_year2018
APhocoenoides dallilatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
APhocoenoides dallion_ordinal_scaleyes
APhoebastria albatruslatest_categorywithheld132642113
APhoebastria albatruslatest_assessment_year2018
APhoebastria albatruslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
APhoebastria albatruson_ordinal_scaleyes
APhyseter macrocephaluslatest_categorywithheld50382216
APhyseter macrocephaluslatest_assessment_year2025
APhyseter macrocephaluslatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
APhyseter macrocephaluson_ordinal_scaleyes
ARhodiola rosealatest_categorywithheld55685155
ARhodiola rosealatest_assessment_year2014
ARhodiola rosealatest_assessment_scopeGlobal
ARhodiola roseaon_ordinal_scaleyes
AUrsus maritimuslatest_categorywithheld217912462
AUrsus maritimuslatest_assessment_year2025
AUrsus maritimuslatest_assessment_scopeEurope
AUrsus maritimuson_ordinal_scaleyes
AZiphius cavirostrislatest_categorywithheld219010340
AZiphius cavirostrislatest_assessment_year2023
AZiphius cavirostrislatest_assessment_scopeEurope
AZiphius cavirostrison_ordinal_scaleyes
BAcipenser baeriicategory_transitions_1982_20252
BAlopias vulpinuscategory_transitions_1982_20252
BAsio flammeuscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BBalaena mysticetuscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BBalaenoptera acutorostratacategory_transitions_1982_20251
BBalaenoptera borealiscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BBalaenoptera musculuscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BBalaenoptera physaluscategory_transitions_1982_20254
BBerardius bairdiicategory_transitions_1982_20250
BBranta hutchinsiicategory_transitions_1982_20250
BBranta ruficolliscategory_transitions_1982_20253
BBubo scandiacuscategory_transitions_1982_20253
BButeo lagopuscategory_transitions_1982_20250
BCetorhinus maximuscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BDelphinapterus leucascategory_transitions_1982_20252
BEnhydra lutriscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BEschrichtius robustuscategory_transitions_1982_20250
BEubalaena glacialiscategory_transitions_1982_20252
BEubalaena japonicacategory_transitions_1982_20250
BFalco peregrinuscategory_transitions_1982_20250
BFalco rusticoluscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BGlobicephala melascategory_transitions_1982_20250
BGrus canadensiscategory_transitions_1982_20250
BHyperoodon ampullatuscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BLagenorhynchus acutuscategory_transitions_1982_20250
BLagenorhynchus albirostriscategory_transitions_1982_20250
BLamna nasuscategory_transitions_1982_20254
BLeucogeranus leucogeranuscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BLontra canadensiscategory_transitions_1982_20250
BLynx canadensiscategory_transitions_1982_20250
BMegaptera novaeangliaecategory_transitions_1982_20251
BMesoplodon stejnegericategory_transitions_1982_20250
BMonodon monoceroscategory_transitions_1982_20252
BNumenius borealiscategory_transitions_1982_20250
BOdobenus rosmaruscategory_transitions_1982_20252
BOrcinus orcacategory_transitions_1982_20250
BPhocoena phocoenacategory_transitions_1982_20251
BPhocoenoides dallicategory_transitions_1982_20251
BPhoebastria albatruscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BPhyseter macrocephaluscategory_transitions_1982_20252
BRhodiola roseacategory_transitions_1982_20250
BUrsus maritimuscategory_transitions_1982_20251
BZiphius cavirostriscategory_transitions_1982_20250
C1996species_assessed34
C1996high_risk_en_cr7
C1996high_risk_share_pct20.6
C1997species_assessed34
C1997high_risk_en_cr7
C1997high_risk_share_pct20.6
C1998species_assessed34
C1998high_risk_en_cr7
C1998high_risk_share_pct20.6
C1999species_assessed34
C1999high_risk_en_cr7
C1999high_risk_share_pct20.6
C2000species_assessed35
C2000high_risk_en_cr7
C2000high_risk_share_pct20.0
C2001species_assessed35
C2001high_risk_en_cr7
C2001high_risk_share_pct20.0
C2002species_assessed35
C2002high_risk_en_cr7
C2002high_risk_share_pct20.0
C2003species_assessed35
C2003high_risk_en_cr7
C2003high_risk_share_pct20.0
C2004species_assessed35
C2004high_risk_en_cr7
C2004high_risk_share_pct20.0
C2005species_assessed35
C2005high_risk_en_cr7
C2005high_risk_share_pct20.0
C2006species_assessed36
C2006high_risk_en_cr7
C2006high_risk_share_pct19.4
C2007species_assessed37
C2007high_risk_en_cr8
C2007high_risk_share_pct21.6
C2008species_assessed39
C2008high_risk_en_cr9
C2008high_risk_share_pct23.1
C2009species_assessed40
C2009high_risk_en_cr9
C2009high_risk_share_pct22.5
C2010species_assessed40
C2010high_risk_en_cr10
C2010high_risk_share_pct25.0
C2011species_assessed40
C2011high_risk_en_cr10
C2011high_risk_share_pct25.0
C2012species_assessed40
C2012high_risk_en_cr11
C2012high_risk_share_pct27.5
C2013species_assessed40
C2013high_risk_en_cr11
C2013high_risk_share_pct27.5
C2014species_assessed42
C2014high_risk_en_cr11
C2014high_risk_share_pct26.2
C2015species_assessed42
C2015high_risk_en_cr13
C2015high_risk_share_pct31.0
C2016species_assessed42
C2016high_risk_en_cr13
C2016high_risk_share_pct31.0
C2017species_assessed42
C2017high_risk_en_cr13
C2017high_risk_share_pct31.0
C2018species_assessed42
C2018high_risk_en_cr12
C2018high_risk_share_pct28.6
C2019species_assessed42
C2019high_risk_en_cr9
C2019high_risk_share_pct21.4
C2020species_assessed43
C2020high_risk_en_cr9
C2020high_risk_share_pct20.9
C2021species_assessed43
C2021high_risk_en_cr9
C2021high_risk_share_pct20.9
C2022species_assessed43
C2022high_risk_en_cr9
C2022high_risk_share_pct20.9
C2023species_assessed43
C2023high_risk_en_cr7
C2023high_risk_share_pct16.3

Cells marked withheld are IUCN categories this deposit may not redistribute; REBUILD-IUCN.md in the deposit rebuilds them from the IUCN's own release.

Binding derived

status-patterns · pipeline artifact figureB · binding proposed, unconfirmed

Binding evidence, as the record states it: figureB_source_data.csv carries the three panels in long form, computed from the global-and-European series the lead author decided on 21 October 2026: Global and Europe assessments form one series per species, ordered by year and assessment id, the higher id standing in a year with several, and only the one assessment that is regional but not European (the Mediterranean Lamna nasus 2016, 16527805) is left out; the seven European assessments the record files without a scope (species_data/curated/iucn_scope_corrections.csv) count, as European. Panel A gives the latest assessment of either scope, with its scope in the latest_assessment_scope rows: 4 CR, 3 EN, 11 VU, 3 NT and 21 LC, and one Regionally Extinct. Panel B's per-species transition counts sum to 43. Panel C, comparable assessments only, reproduces 7 EN or CR species of 34 in 1996, 13 of 42 in 2015 to 2017, 9 of 42 in 2019 and 7 of 43 in 2023; the number of assessed species grows from 5 in 1988 to 43 in 2023. response/check_figure11_source_data.py compares every value with the authors' table, response/from-tom-2026-10-21/skuggi/Figure-11-source-data-all-panels.csv.

This binding is proposed and has not been confirmed

No named person has checked that pipeline artifact figureB is the code that produced this manuscript figure. The evidence for the proposal is stated below. The four fields that follow describe figureB. If the binding is wrong, they describe the wrong figure, and that possibility is disclosed here rather than absorbed.

Evidence: figureB_source_data.csv carries the three panels in long form, computed from the global-and-European series the lead author decided on 21 October 2026: Global and Europe assessments form one series per species, ordered by year and assessment id, the higher id standing in a year with several, and only the one assessment that is regional but not European (the Mediterranean Lamna nasus 2016, 16527805) is left out; the seven European assessments the record files without a scope (species_data/curated/iucn_scope_corrections.csv) count, as European. Panel A gives the latest assessment of either scope, with its scope in the latest_assessment_scope rows: 4 CR, 3 EN, 11 VU, 3 NT and 21 LC, and one Regionally Extinct. Panel B's per-species transition counts sum to 43. Panel C, comparable assessments only, reproduces 7 EN or CR species of 34 in 1996, 13 of 42 in 2015 to 2017, 9 of 42 in 2019 and 7 of 43 in 2023; the number of assessed species grows from 5 in 1988 to 43 in 2023. response/check_figure11_source_data.py compares every value with the authors' table, response/from-tom-2026-10-21/skuggi/Figure-11-source-data-all-panels.csv.

Confirming this requires the person who produced the figures.

1. Data inputs derived

Computed from the figure pipeline's declared tables and query.

Database schema
arctic_v2
Tables
Database release
IUCN Red List snapshot 2026-07-22
Extraction date
22 July 2026
Redistributable
No. IUCN Red List terms do not permit redistribution of the categories. The assessment identifiers and the rebuild route are deposited instead; this table carries counts, not categories.

2. Processing steps derived

Each step is a path in the figure pipeline's own repository, which this site does not host. Regenerate and verify commands are literal. 1 of the 2 artifacts below is served here, and carries a download link; the rest are named so the chain can be read, not followed.

  1. Read the frozen intermediate. data/processed/iucn_historic_timeline.json
  2. Compute and write the frozen numeric source data. visualizations/source_data/figureB_source_data.csv, download

3. LLM involvement: none

No generative model participated in producing this figure. The generator imports only csv, json, sys, collections, pathlib and the project's redlist_scale module, which is the one Red List scale and holds no model call either. No model API is called at any step, and there is no prompt because there is no model.

This is asserted mechanically rather than by declaration. visualizations/tests/test_no_model_calls.py reads this manifest, opens every script and generator it names, searches for model SDKs and API clients, and fails if it finds one. It covers every script and generator the manifest names.

The generative model in this project drafted 343 narrative prose sections about the 43 species. None of that prose reaches any figure, and none of it is displayed on this site: it is withheld pending expert review.

No review has begun, so there is no agreement statistic to report and no page reporting one. What can be checked is that the withholding is complete: the drafts are deposited unrendered as supplementary/species_narratives_no_citations.csv, every species page states how many of its sections are withheld, and the dataset page marks the table as unreviewed content.

4. Validation

Automated gate: passed. Byte-exact regeneration from the live database against the frozen source data.

Human review: generated 2026-10-06; no named person has signed the binding and it is not yet independently confirmed. withheld The automated gate establishes that the numbers are reproducible from the database. It establishes nothing about whether they are the right numbers to plot. That judgement requires a person, and no person has recorded it.

Retained and flagged

Known defects, one.

Figure 10's caption says the assessed-species count grows from 5 in 1988 to 42 in 2023. 5 in 1988 is exact; 42 is the 2014-2019 value and the count is 43 from 2020, when Mesoplodon stejnegeri gains the single comparable global assessment Section 4.4 reports in its own words. Held as: the generator asserts 43 and refuses to reproduce the caption's figure; the manuscript carries a margin query for the authors.